2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast Now Available from Aviation Week

Global passenger demand buoys commercial aviation's continued growth despite constrained supplies and rising aftermarket costs. Airbus' narrowbody market share gains vs. Boeing persist. Engine aftermarket MRO costs cause headwinds.

NEW YORK, NY, UNITED STATES, October 22, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Aviation Week unveiled its comprehensive 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, delivering a decade-long analysis of the air transport sector's trajectory. Developed through independent projections and data analysis by Aviation Week Intelligence's specialized forecasting teams, the research reveals that commercial aviation continues its upward momentum despite ongoing industry challenges.

With firm order backlogs for new aircraft currently at their highest levels, over 18,600 firm orders mean that OEMs' prospects remain bullish for most of the decade. Commercial deliveries in 2027 should exceed 2018's annual performance, which hasn't yet been matched. Deliveries are expected to increase in velocity, peaking past 2,200 annual deliveries in the out years, as OEMs overcome supplier, quality, and certification issues and ramp up production to meet air carrier demand. New delivery numbers are impressive, but a higher percentage of these aircraft are now slated to replace aging fleets around the globe, especially in North America. The net effect of the new delivery projections and readjusted retirement dates means a global in-service growth rate of 3.3% over the decade.

Record low aircraft retirements in the recent past, caused by insufficient new aircraft inventory, have not only left airlines flying older aircraft and engines but also created an impact on MRO aftermarket costs that is being felt throughout the industry. MRO aftermarket demand is projected to rise to $1.77 trillion globally, growing at a 3.6% CAGR, not accounting for inflation. With strong passenger demand, engines and airframes will need both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance. Engine maintenance is expected to yield $928.9 billion in demand, coming from over 100,000 overhaul events worldwide and nearly 59,000 life-limited-parts replacement events. From a regional perspective, Western Europe's fleet make-up will cause the region to overtake North America in annual MRO demand during the forecast period.

"Similar to last year, strong global passenger demand has kept operators flying older aircraft longer than in the past because OEMs haven't been able to meet new delivery needs fast enough. At least 2,000 older aircraft are flying that normally would have been retired. This trend reverberates throughout the forecast period as the fleet composition reflects the thousands of individual business decisions made today and in the past," said Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights, Intelligence & Data Services. "Supply chain, labor, quality control, and certification issues affecting OEMs have hampered their ability to ramp up fast enough. Combined with engine durability issues with our most popular new narrowbodies and MRO provider constraints, the result is that older aircraft are creating additional costs for airlines. Despite this, and now fuel price shocks, the forecast still points to a strong positive outlook, but these issues bear watching as our support systems need to gain efficiency."

Narrowbody aircraft represent 74% of the projected 21,600+ global deliveries. The analysis indicates that Airbus maintains its lead over Boeing in narrowbody deliveries, with the A320 family expected to exceed the 737 in-service fleet by approximately 2,500 aircraft by the conclusion of 2036. The anticipated wave of aircraft retirements is unlikely to materialize in the immediate term, as commercial operators maintain cautious positions regarding new-generation aircraft delivery schedules. Nevertheless, given operators' preference for new-generation aircraft over legacy models and minimal retirement activity over the past five years, a historically significant percentage of fleet retirements, approximately 3% of the total fleet, primarily from North American carriers, is expected to reach a critical threshold by mid-decade. Over the long term, increased aircraft retirements may present challenges for legacy engine parts suppliers as green-time components and used serviceable materials saturate engine markets during the decade's second half.

The 2027 Military, Business Aviation, and Helicopter Fleet & MRO Forecasts are also scheduled for release in October.

The 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast findings detail market demands and industry trends, accounting for not only the impact of economic and macro trends on global fleets and MRO but also capturing new costs and industry trends globally, regionally, and across all aircraft families. By combining current fleet counts and statistics, projected aircraft fleet changes, utilization projections derived from in-house flight data, and segmented MRO cost analytics, the forecast delivers critical strategic insights for the commercial market sector.

For more information on Aviation Week's 2027 Fleet & MRO Forecasts or to subscribe, contact Anne McMahon at +1 646 469 1564 or anne.mcmahon@aviationweek.com, or visit https://aviationweek.com/fleetforecast.

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